Multi-scale risk assessment method of rainstorm meteorological disaster for traffic in Wuhan 1 + 8 urban agglomeration

Rui Li (), Xu Zhang (), Chenghong Hu (), Nengcheng Chen () and Xiang Zhang ()
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Rui Li: Changjiang Wuhan Waterway Bureau
Xu Zhang: China University of Geosciences
Chenghong Hu: Autonavi Holdings Limited
Nengcheng Chen: China University of Geosciences
Xiang Zhang: China University of Geosciences

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 6, No 20, 5459-5484

Abstract: Abstract Transportation stands as a fundamental industry that serves as a robust pillar for driving economic development. However, the occurrence of traffic incidents, encompassing traffic accidents and disruptions triggered by meteorological conditions such as rainfall and other atmospheric factors, exerts a substantial impact on both transport safety and the safeguarding of people's property. Consequently, it becomes imperative to undertake a meticulous examination of the risk assessment associated with rainfall-induced meteorological disasters in the realm of road traffic. The focus of this study lies in addressing the urgent requirements associated with the assessment of meteorological disaster risks triggered by rainfall in the field of road traffic. Additionally, it aims to tackle the current issues in domestic research on the assessment of meteorological disaster risks in highways, characterized by a singular research scale and method. Centered around the demand for the assessment of rainfall-induced meteorological disaster risks in road traffic, the study first adopts the "urban agglomeration—city—block" multi-scale integration as a starting point. It establishes a multi-scale integrated risk assessment indicator system based on the dimensions of regional spatial scale and road grade, employing a hierarchical division approach grounded in the pyramid principle. Furthermore, the study develops a novel indicator system weight calculation method that combines both subjective and objective elements, enhancing the comprehensiveness and reliability of the assessment model. Using this assessment model, the paper conducts a study on the risk assessment and zoning of rainfall-induced meteorological disasters on highways in the Wuhan 1 + 8 agglomeration of China, the main roads in Wuhan City, and the main roads in the Hongshan District. The outcome of the study reveals the distribution of risk levels across the examined regions. Notably, within the Wuhan 1 + 8 urban agglomeration, approximately 73% of the area is designated as a high-risk zone, whereas 25% and 3% represent medium- and low-risk areas, respectively. In Wuhan City, 2% of the territory falls under the high-risk category, with 73% classified as medium risk and 25% as low risk. Similarly, within the Hongshan District, 30% is identified as a medium-risk area, while 70% is categorized as low risk. In summary, through practical testing, the research endeavors concerning risk assessment methods conducted in this study serve as an invaluable point of reference for both theoretical and methodological investigations within the realm of meteorological disaster risk assessment. Furthermore, it signifies an efficacious exploration into conducting multi-scale assessments of meteorological disaster risks. Additionally, the study holds the potential to provide methodological and technical support to the pertinent departments involved in the Wuhan 1 + 8 urban agglomeration, thereby contributing to the prevention of highway meteorological disasters.

Keywords: Highway traffic; Multi-scale indicator system; Rainfall meteorological disaster risk assessment; Risk assessment model; Wuhan 1 + 8 urban agglomeration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06429-z

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