Real-time flood forecasting using an integrated hydrologic and hydraulic model for the Vamsadhara and Nagavali basins, Eastern India

G. Venkata Rao, Nageswara Reddy Nagireddy, Venkata Reddy Keesara, Venkataramana Sridhar (), Raghavan Srinivasan, N. V. Umamahesh and Deva Pratap
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G. Venkata Rao: National Institute of Technology Warangal
Nageswara Reddy Nagireddy: National Institute of Technology Warangal
Venkata Reddy Keesara: National Institute of Technology Warangal
Venkataramana Sridhar: Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Raghavan Srinivasan: Texas A&M University
N. V. Umamahesh: National Institute of Technology Warangal
Deva Pratap: National Institute of Technology Warangal

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 7, No 3, 6039 pages

Abstract: Abstract Due to recent rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones that form over the Bay of Bengal during the pre- and post-monsoon seasons, the Nagavali and Vamsadhara basins in India experience frequent floods, causing significant loss of human life and damage to agricultural lands and infrastructure. This study provides an integrated hydrologic and hydraulic modeling system that is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and the 2-Dimensional Hydrological Engineering Centre-River Analysis System, which simulates floods using Global Forecasting System rainfall forecasts with a 48-h lead time. The integrated model was used to simulate the streamflow, flood area extent, and depth for the historical flood events (i.e., 1991–2018) with peak discharges of 1200 m3/s in the Nagavali basin and 1360 m3/s in the Vamsadhara basin. The integrated model predicted flood inundation depths that were in good agreement with observed inundation depths provided by the Central Water Commission. The inundation maps generated by the integrated modeling system with a 48-h lead time for tropical cyclone Titli demonstrated an accuracy of more than 75%. The insights gained from this study will help the public and government agencies make better decisions and deal with floods.

Keywords: Floods; Flood inundation area and depth; Lead time; SWAT; HEC-RAS; GFS; Integrated model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06366-3

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