Testing the predictive ability of a karst subsidence susceptibility map made thirty years ago in the central Ebro Basin (Zaragoza, Spain)

Javier Gracia-Abadías, José L. Simón (), M. Asunción Soriano and Tomás Salvador
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Javier Gracia-Abadías: Control 7 SAU
José L. Simón: Universidad de Zaragoza
M. Asunción Soriano: Universidad de Zaragoza

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 8, No 15, 7357-7380

Abstract: Abstract Karst subsidence has caused damage in numerous buildings and infrastructures in the surroundings of Zaragoza city since the early 1970s, when rapid urbanization of the area begun. A detailed survey carried out in 1991 allowed recognizing and mapping damages in an industrial district, and elaborating a susceptibility or spatial hazard map based on (i) the observed presence of active alluvial dolines, and (ii) spatial distribution of factors controlling their development, according to a hazard model based on both spatial analysis and laboratory experimental simulation. The predictive ability of such spatial hazard map is now tested, thirty years later, by a new detailed field survey carried out in 2021 covering almost the same area. The results allow mapping of the total present-day damage and, using GIS tools, also a residual map of areas newly damaged since 1991. After comparing those maps with the hazard zonation proposed in 1991, we conclude that: (i) the predictive ability of the latter is good in overall; (ii) the areas of highest subsidence hazard have a probability in the range of 19–38% of suffering damage over a 30-year period, while this probability systematically decreases up to about 7% for the lowest hazard areas; (iii) the average rate of occurrence of new damage within the overall study zone has remained quite uniform around 0.5% in area per year. Incorporating such calculations of temporal probability of occurrence associated to each hazard category allows the original susceptibility map to approach a hazard s.s. map, providing annual probabilities of occurrence between ~ 0.6 to 1.3% and ~ 0.3% for the distinct hazard zones.

Keywords: Alluvial doline; Susceptibility map; Hazard model; Temporal probability; Safety belt (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06507-2

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