Future changes in intense tropical cyclone hazards in the Pearl River Delta region: an air-wave-ocean coupled model study

Zhenning Li (), Jimmy C. H. Fung (), Mau Fung Wong, Shangfei Lin, Fenying Cai, Wenfeng Lai and Alexis K. H. Lau
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Zhenning Li: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Jimmy C. H. Fung: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Mau Fung Wong: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Shangfei Lin: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Fenying Cai: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Wenfeng Lai: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Alexis K. H. Lau: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 8, No 8, 7139-7154

Abstract: Abstract The Pearl River Delta (PRD) region is highly vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC)-caused coastal hazards due to its long and meandering shoreline and well-developed economy. With global warming expected to continue or worsen in the rest of the twenty-first century, this study examines the TC impact on the PRD coastal regions by reproducing three intense landfalling TCs, namely Vicente (2012), Hato (2017), Mangkhut (2018), using a sophisticated air-wave-ocean coupled model of high spatial resolution (1-km atmosphere and 500-m wave and ocean). The simulations are conducted using present-day reanalysis data and the same TCs occurring in a pseudo-global warming scenario projected for the 2090s. Results indicate that the coupled model accurately reproduces the air-wave-ocean status during the TC episodes. The 2090s thermodynamic status effectively increases the intensity of intense TCs, leading to more severe coastal hazards including gale, rainstorm, and storm surges and waves. On average, the maximum surface wind speed within 50–200 km to the right of the TC center can increase by 4.3 m/s (+22%). The 99th and the 99.9th percentile of accumulated rainfall will increase from 405 to 475 mm (+17.3%), and from 619 to 735 mm (+18.6%), respectively. The maximum significant wave height at the ocean is lifted by an average of 57 cm (+13.8%), and the coastline typically faces a 40–80 cm increase. The maximum storm surges are lifted by 30–80 cm over the open sea but aggravate much higher along the coastline, especially for narrowing estuaries. For Typhoon Vicente (2012), there is more than a 200 cm wave height increase observed both at open sea and along the coastline. In the 2090s context, a combination of mean sea level rise, storm surge, and wave height can reach more than 300 cm increase in total water level at certain hot-spot coastlines, without considering the superposition of spring tides.

Keywords: Air-wave-ocean interactions; Tropical cyclone; Climate change; Coastal hazards (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06510-7

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