Insights into meteorological drought: navigating Uganda’s cattle corridor through past trends and future projections

F. S. Nalwanga (), J. Nanteza, J. Obua, A. Nimusiima, P. Mukwaya, J. Kisembe, R. Odongo, P. Musali, G. N. Nabanoga and Y. Kisira
Additional contact information
F. S. Nalwanga: Makerere University
J. Nanteza: Makerere University
J. Obua: Makerere University
A. Nimusiima: Makerere University
P. Mukwaya: Makerere University
J. Kisembe: Makerere University
R. Odongo: Makerere University
P. Musali: Makerere University
G. N. Nabanoga: Makerere University
Y. Kisira: Makerere University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 9, No 25, 8695-8721

Abstract: Abstract The cattle corridor in Uganda is known for its vulnerability to unpredictable rainfall patterns, recurring and severe droughts, all of which lead to water scarcity and crop failures. Therefore, to gain a deeper understanding of these drought characteristics, three districts were selected within the cattle corridor: Rakai in the South, Nakasongola in the Central, and Nabilatuk in the North. An analysis of historical and near future meteorological drought changes in the cattle corridor using SPI from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) for the historical periods 1981–2010 and 2031–2060 (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Trends in SPI values were assessed using the Sen slope estimator and Mann–Kendall test at 0.05. Results suggest ongoing drought occurrences, even during traditionally wet periods, especially during La Niña period. Nakasongola district experienced more frequent droughts, with 25 in the historical period and 26 in the near future compared to Rakai and Nabilatuk districts. Historically, the districts had average drought spans of 7–9 months and maximum spans of 23–36 months. Under RCP4.5, durations ranged from 6 to 11 months (average) and 34–60 months (maximum), while under RCP8.5, from 8 to 13 months (average) and 23–41 months (maximum). Drought severity and duration were expected to increase across all districts, with Rakai district facing the longest historical (January 2007–December 2009) and the projected (April 2054–March 2059) droughts. Additionally, Nabilatuk showed negative and significant SPI trends historically (Sen’s slope = − 004, p value = 0.004). Hence, tailored interventions are crucial for stakeholders managing drought to build resilience.

Keywords: Precipitation data; Drought characterization; Extreme drought events; Drought condition projection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-06545-w Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:9:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06545-w

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06545-w

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().