Tropical or extratropical cyclones: what drives the compound flood hazard, impact, and risk for the United States Southeast Atlantic coast?

Kees Nederhoff (), Tim W. B. Leijnse, Kai Parker, Jennifer Thomas, Andrea O’Neill, Maarten Ormondt, Robert McCall, Li Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Amy Foxgrover, Wouter Klessens, Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo and Thomas Chris Massey
Additional contact information
Kees Nederhoff: Deltares USA
Tim W. B. Leijnse: Deltares
Kai Parker: U.S. Geological Survey
Jennifer Thomas: U.S. Geological Survey
Andrea O’Neill: U.S. Geological Survey
Maarten Ormondt: Deltares USA
Robert McCall: Deltares
Li Erikson: U.S. Geological Survey
Patrick L. Barnard: U.S. Geological Survey
Amy Foxgrover: U.S. Geological Survey
Wouter Klessens: Deltares
Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
Thomas Chris Massey: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 9, No 29, 8779-8825

Abstract: Abstract Subtropical coastlines are impacted by both tropical and extratropical cyclones. While both may lead to substantial damage to coastal communities, it is difficult to determine the contribution of tropical cyclones to coastal flooding relative to that of extratropical cyclones. We conduct a large-scale flood hazard and impact assessment across the subtropical Southeast Atlantic Coast of the United States, from Virginia to Florida, including different flood hazards. The physics-based hydrodynamic modeling skillfully reproduces coastal water levels based on a comprehensive validation of tides, almost two hundred historical storms, and an in-depth hindcast of Hurricane Florence. We show that yearly flood impacts are two times as likely to be driven by extratropical than tropical cyclones. On the other hand, tropical cyclones are 30 times more likely to affect people during rarer 100-year events than extratropical cyclones and contribute to more than half of the regional flood risk. With increasing sea levels, more areas will be flooded, regardless of whether flooding is driven by tropical or extratropical cyclones. Most of the absolute flood risk is contained in the greater Miami metropolitan area. However, several less populous counties have the highest relative risks. The results of this study provide critical information for understanding the source and frequency of compound flooding across the Southeast Atlantic Coast of the United States.

Keywords: Compound flooding; Tropical cyclones; Extra-tropical storms; Hydrodynamic modeling; Southeast Atlantic Coast; SFINCS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06552-x

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