Analysis of drought patterns and categories based on the Standard Precipitation-Temperature Index (SPTI): application of fuzzy c-means clustering and principal component analysis

Sabri Berhail () and Okan Mert Katipoğlu
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Sabri Berhail: Abdelhafid Boussouf University Center
Okan Mert Katipoğlu: Erzincan Binali Yıldırım University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 10, No 29, 12025-12051

Abstract: Abstract This study deals with climate variability issues in the Kebir Rhumel basin, situated in northeastern Algeria. This region is experiencing significant changes in climate parameters, which will affect the region’s water resources, agriculture, and overall ecosystem health. The main goal of this study is to examine the severity and frequency of drought from 1981 to 2019. It used the Standard Precipitation-Temperature Index (SPTI), which was recently developed, and clustering methodologies such as c-means and k-means to examine the variation in rainfall patterns characterized by intervals of intense drought and heavy precipitation. These methods help assess the impact of these disturbances in water availability, which result in challenges for agricultural productivity and water management. Additionally, this study points out the significant trend in temperatures over the reported timeline, which aligns with global warming patterns; this intensifies the effect of drought and impacts the region’s water resources. The southeastern and western parts of the basin are areas that experience continuous extreme drought, and different levels of severe drought have been observed over decades. When comparing the results with existing methods, this research has revealed unique climatic trends in this basin area through clustering techniques applied to SPTI results. In particular, 45% of the stations indicate moderate wetness, 35% of the stations experience extreme wetness, and 20% of the stations are extremely dry. Each of these climatic patterns poses distinct challenges for water resource management. These findings demonstrate the complex interplay between rainfall variability, temperature increases, and drought severity. They underscore the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies and plans to address climate change impacts.

Keywords: Precipitation; Temperature; Drought; Cluster analysis; C-means; K-means; Water resources (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07271-7

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