Evaluation of rainfall‑threshold methods for flash flood warnings based on soil moisture conditions

Yuting Zhao, Xuemei Wu, Li Guo, Guanghua Qin, Xiaodong Li and Hongxia Li ()
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Yuting Zhao: Sichuan University
Xuemei Wu: Sichuan University
Li Guo: Sichuan University
Guanghua Qin: Sichuan University
Xiaodong Li: Sichuan University
Hongxia Li: Sichuan University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 10, No 30, 12053-12076

Abstract: Abstract Accurate flash flood warning is crucial for hazard risk management. Rainfall threshold is one of the most effective approaches for flash flood early warning. However, the capability of different rainfall-threshold methods has been insufficiently evaluated and validated, and the influence of data limitations on the model performance still needs to be explored. In this work, we comprehensively evaluate and compare three rainfall-threshold methods (empirical, hydrological, and probabilistic) based on soil moisture conditions for flash flood warnings in two small mountainous catchments with different data features. Results show that all three methods obtain good accuracy (Hit Rate (HR) > 0.80, False Alarm Rate (FAR)

Keywords: Flash flood; Rainfall thresholds; Early warning; Data availability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07272-6

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