Modelling and analysis of extreme weather-induced disasters in Indian North-West Himalayas

Saurabh Singh, Piyush Srivastava () and Amit Dhiman
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Saurabh Singh: Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee
Piyush Srivastava: Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee
Amit Dhiman: Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 11, No 32, 13153-13171

Abstract: Abstract The present study aims to investigate the suitability of the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRFv4.3.3) in simulating heavy to extreme rainfall due to extreme weather conditions over complex terrain in the Indian North-Western Himalayan region. For this, high-resolution model simulation (1 km × 1 km) of the 2013 and 2023 North India flood events caused by extreme weather conditions are performed. A comparative analysis based on model simulations, in-situ observations and reanalysis data suggests that the WRF model is able to capture the spatiotemporal distribution of key meteorological parameters, such as temperature, rainfall and geopotential height, along with mesoscale features such as low-level convergence, upper-level divergence, high humidity and convective instability demonstrating its ability to simulate the atmosphere dynamics leading to extreme precipitation events. Further, the WRF model is found to capture the shifts in meridional wind patterns, transporting moisture into the region and contributing to heavy rainfall.

Keywords: Extreme weather; Early warning system; NWP; Weather forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07311-2

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