Disaster leadership in the VUCA paradigm: next-generation competencies

Mehtap Kılıç () and Cüneyt Çalışkan
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Mehtap Kılıç: Ardahan University
Cüneyt Çalışkan: Ardahan University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 12, No 2, 13899-13925

Abstract: Abstract The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive overview of disaster leadership in the VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity) world. It examines the competencies and traits essential for effective leadership in dynamic and unpredictable environments, emphasizing skills like adaptability, flexibility, and strategic thinking. The research seeks to develop a model addressing the unique challenges faced by disaster leaders, highlighting the critical role of uncertainty management and crisis navigation in decision-making processes. A systematic review was developed using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta Analyses (PRISMA) guideline to determine the framework of disaster leadership in the VUCA world in the last 3 months of 2024. Web of Science, PubMED, Scopus and Google were the primary databases utilised for the literature review. In accordance with the identified keywords, studies on the reflection of the VUCA world in disasters, the problems experienced, and the characteristics and competencies of leaders were included. The study identified only one study in the literature on the concepts of disaster management, leadership and VUCA. This study was conducted only in the context of the pandemic. Conversely, the literature review on the expressions corresponding to each component of the VUCA concept encompasses a total of 10 studies. The model identifies the characteristics and competencies that leaders should possess in order to address the challenges faced in the VUCA environment, and suggests how these elements should come together for effective leadership.

Keywords: VUCA; Disaster management; Leadership; Leader (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07372-3

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