Assessing the impact of coastal flooding along the northern Yucatan Peninsula associated to sea level rise under different shared socio-economic pathways

Wilmer Rey (), Paulo Salles (), José Carlos Pintado-Patiño, Mark Stacey, Alec Torres-Freyermuth, Pablo Ruiz-Salcines and Bismarck Jigena-Antelo
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Wilmer Rey: SECIHTI, Secretaría de Ciencia, Humanidades, Tecnología e Innovación
Paulo Salles: Instituto de Ingeniería, UNAM
José Carlos Pintado-Patiño: Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores, Unidad Mérida, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Mark Stacey: University of California
Alec Torres-Freyermuth: Instituto de Ingeniería, UNAM
Pablo Ruiz-Salcines: SECIHTI, Secretaría de Ciencia, Humanidades, Tecnología e Innovación
Bismarck Jigena-Antelo: University of Cadiz, CASEM

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 13, No 16, 15443-15466

Abstract: Abstract Sea level rise (SLR) inundation threats were evaluated across four barrier island coastal socio-ecosystems in the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula. Firstly, a 2-D hydrodynamic model was implemented, using a high-spatial-resolution LIDAR Digital Elevation Model, and was forced with SLR projections (17th- 83rd percentiles) for the year 2100 under three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) along with the local micro tide. Model results suggest important impacts in these coastal communities, particularly under the worst-case flood scenario (SSP5-8.5 83rd percentile; spring high tide), projecting flooding in 22–64% of city blocks of those towns by 2100. Moreover, rapid population growth over the past ten years has further increased flood risks. Further analysis focusing on Progreso, the largest coastal town in the study region, flood, population, and land use cover maps were overlaid to exhibit exposed elements to floods. This analysis reveals that large portions of forests (43.45%), shrublands (32.35%), grasslands (21.68%), and artificial surfaces (2.51%), and numerous city blocks in the lee side of the barrier island could be flooded under this worst-case flood scenario. Secondly, different alternatives to reduce the exposure to coastal flooding (levees, inhabitant’s relocation, land elevation build-up, and stilt houses) are discussed. This methodology can be useful to decision-makers for prevention, preparedness, mitigation of SLR impacts, and updating land use in northern Yucatan and other similar coastal regions.

Keywords: Numerical modeling; Flood hazard; Coastal exposure to floods; Climate change; IPCC AR6; Flood adaptation measures; Floodings in Yucatan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07391-0

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