Effects of climate change and typhoon intensity on extreme ocean dynamic environments: a case study of typhoon YAGI

Dong Jiang, Qi Zhang, Botao Xie (), Qingsheng Miao, Feifei Jiang, Xiandong Cao, Zhifeng Wang and Liang Pang
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Dong Jiang: Ocean University of China
Qi Zhang: CNOOC Research Institute Co. Ltd.
Botao Xie: CNOOC Research Institute Co. Ltd.
Qingsheng Miao: National Marine Data and Information Service
Feifei Jiang: Ocean University of China
Xiandong Cao: Ocean University of China
Zhifeng Wang: Ocean University of China
Liang Pang: Ocean University of China

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 13, No 17, 15467-15490

Abstract: Abstract With the influence of climate change and rising sea surface temperatures, typhoon intensity in the South China Sea has exhibited an increasing trend. This study using the WRF model, the Jelesnianski typhoon model, and the SWAN model to reconstruct wind and wave fields during Typhoon YAGI. SWAN's default WU wind drag formula is unsuitable for wave simulation during typhoon YAGI, while the FIL formula provides more accurate results. The one-dimensional wave energy spectra at M3 oil platform during typhoon YAGI peaks at 298.6 m2/Hz, with a corresponding frequency of 0.0736 Hz and HS of 13.13 m. When typhoon YAGI reached M3 oil platform, a significant discrepancy between wind and wave directions was simulated near Hainan Island, resulting in a bi-modal spectrum. The extreme wind and wave design parameters for the M3 oil platform affected by Typhoon YAGI, using 40 (1984–2023) years of hindcast-typhoon data. The 100-year and 50-year return period wind and wave parameters was enhanced by 4.18 m/s, 3.63 m/s, and 0.73 m, 0.64 m, respectively by Typhoon YAGI. An idealized approaching 50-year return period typhoon profile is proposed based on the simulated typhoon data, offering a reference for assessing extreme environmental load conditions at M3 oil platform.

Keywords: Typhoon YAGI; Wave spectrum; Numerical simulation; Extreme parameters; Typhoon profile (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07400-2

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