Assessing and managing glacial lake outburst flood risks in the Indian Himalayas: a comprehensive review

Vipul Anand (), Fenil Gandhi () and Jaysukh Songara ()
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Vipul Anand: Bureau of Indian Standards
Fenil Gandhi: Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology
Jaysukh Songara: Dar Al-Handasah

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 15, No 2, 17253-17281

Abstract: Abstract Glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayas, critical freshwater sources formed by glacier retreat, are undergoing rapid transformations due to climate change. Accelerated glacier melting is driving the expansion and formation of these lakes, significantly increasing the frequency and magnitude of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), which pose severe and escalating risks to downstream communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. This comprehensive review synthesizes current knowledge on the status, dynamics, and distribution of glacial lakes across the Indian Himalayas, encompassing the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra basins. It critically examines the impact of climate change trends on glacier retreat and lake evolution, analyzes GLOF triggers and historical events, and evaluates existing methodologies for GLOF risk assessment used in India, including remote sensing inventories, hazard modeling approaches, and standardized risk indexing criteria such as those developed by the Central Water Commission (CWC), highlighting both advancements and limitations. Furthermore, it examines mitigation strategies, monitoring techniques, and the crucial role and challenges of Early Warning Systems (EWS) as key components of risk management. Key findings indicate widespread lake expansion, an apparent increase in GLOF frequency, significant downstream vulnerability, and persistent gaps in accurately assessing moraine dam stability and quantitative socio-economic vulnerability. The paper concludes that managing the escalating GLOF hazard requires an integrated, multi-faceted approach, emphasizing the urgent need for enhanced monitoring networks incorporating field data, validated risk assessments, robust and sustainable EWS implementation, effective inter-agency coordination, community preparedness, and targeted research to fill critical knowledge gaps for effective disaster risk reduction in this dynamic, high-mountain environment.

Keywords: GLOF; Natural hazards; Indian Himalayas; Risk assessment; Climate change impacts; EWS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07497-5

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