A conceptual model to quantify probabilistic dike breach outflow

Leon S. Besseling (), Anouk Bomers, Jord J. Warmink and Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher
Additional contact information
Leon S. Besseling: University of Twente
Anouk Bomers: University of Twente
Jord J. Warmink: University of Twente
Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher: University of Twente

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 15, No 27, 17935-17963

Abstract: Abstract Hydrodynamic models can provide accurate information on the consequences of a dike breach, but their long computation times hinder the analysis of uncertainties and scenarios during a time-sensitive emergency situation. Conceptual models use simplified rules and relations, and allow for much faster computation while preserving reasonable accuracy. In this study, we develop a conceptual model with breach growth that estimates the dike breach outflow for varying river discharge events and for varying dike breach locations along the Rhine’s bifurcations in the Netherlands and Germany. The results show that the model is able to provide a good estimate of the breach outflow, regardless of river discharge waves shape and peak discharge. The model achieves an approximate error of 10 to 15% compared to an operational hydrodynamic model of the study area. Its computation speed allows the analysis of thousands of scenarios per minute, enabling decision makers to probabilistically analyse breach outflow hydrographs at sampled critical water levels for an incoming extreme river discharge wave. We conclude that this conceptual model can provide realistic first estimates of breach outflow for large-scale dike breaches, while requiring little input data and computational time.

Keywords: Flood modelling; Real-time flood forecasting; Surrogate model; Levee breach; Breach discharge; Hydrodynamic model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-025-07500-z Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:15:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07500-z

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07500-z

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().