Exploring the propagation characteristics from meteorological to hydrological drought across diverse climate regions in the upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

Arif Hussain, Jianxia Chang (), Azfar Hussain, Zhou Kai, Guibin Yang and Muhammad Saifullah
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Arif Hussain: Xi’an University of Technology
Jianxia Chang: Xi’an University of Technology
Azfar Hussain: Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences
Zhou Kai: Xi’an University of Technology
Guibin Yang: Xi’an University of Technology
Muhammad Saifullah: MNS-University of Agriculture Multan

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 15, No 34, 18162 pages

Abstract: Abstract Drought has the potential to cause significant harm to agriculture, ecosystems, and society. Drought behavior differences and the factors driving these variations across climate regions are underexplored. Understanding drought dynamics within the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is essential for sustainable water resource management under changing climatic conditions. By using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Standardized runoff index (SRI), we analyzed the interactions, propagation patterns and duration between meteorological and hydrological droughts to overtime scales ranging from 1 to 12 months. Cross-wavelet transform (XWT) explored the two drought types across diverse climatic regions of the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan, from 1970 to 2016 with land use/land cover data 1990 to 2020, while the Mann–Kendall test (MK) was utilized to identify abrupt changes. Our findings revealed that Potential change points in the drought pattern were predominantly observed during 1975–1976, 1991–1994, and 1997–2005, each spanning 2 to 8 years. Region-1, predominantly covered by barren land, experienced a longer transition period for drought propagation (3–10 months) compared to the grassland-dominated Region-2 and Region-3 (2–7 months). The correlation between the two drought types were more pronounced in winter and spring than in summer and autumn. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remained robust over 32-months, showing regular inter-annual oscillations in the region. Besides climate, catchment characteristics, and land use changes significantly influence drought propagation. This research identifies vulnerable regions in Pakistan and suggests drought mitigation strategies. The approach detailed in this study can also be applied in other regions to enhance water resources management and improve drought prediction.

Keywords: Meteorological drought; Hydrological drought; Propagation; Mann–Kendall; Upper Indus Basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07509-4

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