Flood-induced coal mine disaster chain evolution and risk analysis

Chang Su, Jiayi Ma, Caiping Wang (), Jun Deng and Weile Chen
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Chang Su: Xi’an University of Science and Technology
Jiayi Ma: Xi’an University of Science and Technology
Caiping Wang: Xi’an University of Science and Technology
Jun Deng: Xi’an University of Science and Technology
Weile Chen: Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 18, No 11, 21058 pages

Abstract: Abstract Floods often lead to a series of disasters in mines, causing significant losses and impacts. By analyzing the chain evolution and risk characteristics of flood-induced coal mine disasters, we identify the disaster events in them and establish a disaster chain evolution model. Based on complex network theory, the flood-induced coal mine disaster chain is constructed and transformed into a complex network topology diagram. By analyzing parameters such as the degree value of each node and the vulnerability of each edge, 34 key nodes and 94 key edges of the disaster network are identified. Targeted chain-breaking disaster mitigation strategies are proposed, and the effect of chain-breaking disaster mitigation is evaluated. The results of the study show that (1) by destroying nodes with high proximity centrality, including industrial site burial, casualties, and sudden water flooding of wells, it helps to destroy the further evolution of the disaster. (2) By destroying nodes with high meso-centrality, including casualties, buried industrial sites, and collapsed houses, it can be used to cut off the propagation of the shortest path of the disaster. (3) Prioritize cutting off highly vulnerable edges to disrupt the topology of the entire network. (4) Formulate chain breaking strategies for important disaster nodes and edges in advance, which can achieve the purpose of chain breaking and disaster mitigation in a faster and better way.

Keywords: Disaster chains; Complex network theory; Risk analysis; Natech event (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07601-9

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