Development of a climate vulnerability index for community aqueducts in tropical Andean watersheds using fuzzy logic: an application in Colombia

Mayra Alejandra Pérez-Ortiz (), Viviana Vargas-Franco and Diego Fernando Rosero-Portilla
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Mayra Alejandra Pérez-Ortiz: Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Palmira campus
Viviana Vargas-Franco: Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Palmira campus
Diego Fernando Rosero-Portilla: Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Manizales campus

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 18, No 12, 21059-21095

Abstract: Abstract Community aqueducts play a critical role in providing potable water to communities with limited economic, technical, and human resources. However, climate variability and climate change pose significant challenges to their management. Despite their importance, few studies have addressed this issue. The main objective of this article is to develop a tool for assessing climate vulnerability in community water supply systems within tropical Andean watersheds. To this end, a methodological process was developed and structured into three stages. First, the Climate Vulnerability Index for Community Andean Watershed Aqueducts (CVI-CAAW) was conceptually defined through the selection of indicators based on a literature review and the Delphi method. Second, the CVI-CAAW indicators were integrated using a fuzzy logic artificial intelligence model. Third, the CVI-CAAW was applied to community aqueducts in a Colombian Andean watershed using Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB) software. The expert consultation process identified a set of 27 key indicators for assessing climate vulnerability in these systems. The implementation of the CVI-CAAW via fuzzy logic enables the evaluation of susceptibility, adaptive capacity, and overall vulnerability of community aqueducts to climate variability. Application of the CVI-CAAW in the Bolo River watershed revealed that 76.9% of the 13 assessed aqueducts exhibited an important level of climate vulnerability, whereas the remaining 23.1% showed-moderated-vulnerability level. This research introduces a novel, technique-based instrument for community-driven water resource management in the context of climate variability and change, supporting informed decision-making and encouraging future research in this field.

Keywords: Community aqueducts; Climate vulnerability index; Tropical andean watersheds; Fuzzy logic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07603-7

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