Investigating sensitivity to extreme weather of a mid-size global south city: an integrated MCDA (AHP)-GIS based modeling approach

Nur-E-Faeeza Ankhi () and Asif-Uz-Zaman Khan
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Nur-E-Faeeza Ankhi: Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Department of Urban and Regional Planning
Asif-Uz-Zaman Khan: Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Department of Urban and Regional Planning

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 19, No 48, 23547-23580

Abstract: Abstract Extreme weather-induced vulnerability has acquired global prominence for posing frequent threats, resulting in significant socio-economic losses and infrastructure damage. As an unplanned city in the global south, Dhaka frequently grapples with such vulnerabilities due to a rapid rise in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns. Investigating zones susceptible to the combined effects of these extreme events is essential for robust planning and interventions to enhance the city’s resilience. However, no previous research examined this dual vulnerability. Therefore, this study aims to identify the sensitive zones to extreme heat and heavy rainfall (waterlogging) in the city by applying the advanced techniques of GIS, including a multi-criteria decision-making method (MCDA) and analytical hierarchy process on four spectral indices and other non-spectral, physical, hydrological, and geomorphological variables. The findings reveal that only 20% of the city exhibits low sensitivity to the combined effects, which are primarily concentrated in the northeastern and central part of the city. The remaining areas are moderate to high sensitive to extreme weather events, with around 49.39% being under high to very high susceptibility. This indicates that a major part of the city is highly susceptible to extreme weather events, suggesting a widespread vulnerability. The findings are useful in addressing extreme weather's potential to pose a substantial environmental obstacle and yield insights for the sustainable, efficient, and healthy development of the city.

Keywords: Extreme weather events; Extreme heat; Waterlogging; Remote sensing and GIS; Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP); Multi-criteria decision-making method (MCDA) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07546-z

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