Earthquake human casualties assessment in seismic zones: a case study

Zohra Boutaraa () and BelKacem Chaibedra ()
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Zohra Boutaraa: HBBC University of Chlef, Civil Engineering and Architecture Institute
BelKacem Chaibedra: National Polytechnic School of Oran, Civil Engineering Department

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 19, No 15, 22699-22715

Abstract: Abstract In urban areas, earthquakes can have serious consequences, including human casualties. In Algeria, the 1980 El Asnam and the 2003 Boumerdes earthquakes caused a significant number of victims. The first was the most important in terms of magnitude and intensity (Ms = 7.3, Io = X), and an estimated PGA of 0.5 g. It caused considerable human casualties, extensive damage to the built environment, and substantial economic losses. Thus, the aim of this study is to assess, using HAZUS methodology, the human casualties at the urban scale in one of the most earthquake-prone areas in northern Algeria, namely the city of Chlef (formerly El Asnam). The 1980 El Asnam earthquake is selected as a deterministic seismic scenario. The evaluation considers two earthquake scenarios: a daytime (2:00 pm) and a nighttime (02:00 am). The study exhibits a comparison of the obtained results, which are presented in GIS format, with the number of victims caused by the 1980 earthquake. The results comparison shows a reduction of 73% for the diurnal scenario and of 25% for the nocturnal one. Based on the study findings, six indispensable preventive measures are proposed. They include designing preventive strategies, establishing effective mitigation processes, and creating insurance policies. The preparation of seismic risk management plans is also a crucial action to be considered in this process. These measures aim to assist local seismic risk managers in reducing the seismic risk faced by the population.

Keywords: El Asnam earthquake; Human casualties; HAZUS; Seismic scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07718-x

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