Developing science-informed maps and climate service for extreme rainfall in Spain

S. M. Vicente-Serrano (), S. Beguería, F. Reig, A. Royo, M. Arretxea, M. Gil, B. Latorre, A. El Kenawy, M. Franquesa, A. Halifa-Marin, M. Adell-Michavila, A. Crespillo, D. Pérez-Pajuelo, F. Domínguez-Castro, D. Barriopedro, J. M. Gutiérrez, C. Azorin-Molina, L. Gimeno and R. Nieto
Additional contact information
S. M. Vicente-Serrano: IPE-CSIC, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología
S. Beguería: CSIC–Universidad de Zaragoza, Laboratorio de Climatologia y Servicios Climaticos (LCSC)
F. Reig: IPE-CSIC, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología
A. Royo: IPE-CSIC, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología
M. Arretxea: Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO-CSIC-UCM)
M. Gil: CSIC–Universidad de Zaragoza, Laboratorio de Climatologia y Servicios Climaticos (LCSC)
B. Latorre: CSIC–Universidad de Zaragoza, Laboratorio de Climatologia y Servicios Climaticos (LCSC)
A. El Kenawy: IPE-CSIC, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología
M. Franquesa: IPE-CSIC, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología
A. Halifa-Marin: IPE-CSIC, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología
M. Adell-Michavila: IPE-CSIC, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología
A. Crespillo: IPE-CSIC, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología
D. Pérez-Pajuelo: IPE-CSIC, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología
F. Domínguez-Castro: IPE-CSIC, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología
D. Barriopedro: Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO-CSIC-UCM)
J. M. Gutiérrez: IFCA-CSIC - Universidad de Cantabria, Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria
C. Azorin-Molina: CSIC-UV-Generalitat Valenciana), Centro de Investigaciones Sobre Desertificación, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CIDE, Climate, Atmosphere and Ocean Laboratory (Climatoc-Lab)
L. Gimeno: CIM‑UVigo, Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab)
R. Nieto: CIM‑UVigo, Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab)

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 19, No 37, 23302 pages

Abstract: Abstract This study introduces the first high-resolution hazard probability maps of extreme precipitation for Spain, marking a significant step toward a national climate service for hydrometeorological extremes. Using long-term daily precipitation records from a dense network of stations and incorporating topographic data, the methodology combines the Generalized Pareto distribution with universal kriging to spatially interpolate distribution parameters. These maps offer reliable estimates of extreme precipitation quantiles, validated against station-level observations, and are based on a stationary modelling framework—an approach supported by recent findings showing the temporal stability of such extremes in Spain and considered more robust than non-stationary alternatives. Distinct spatial patterns emerge, with intense daily precipitation distributed mainly along the Mediterranean coast and high total event precipitation in the northwest and southwest, reflecting the influence of varied weather systems. To support decision-making, the study aggregates these high-resolution data at the provincial level, aligning risk information with administrative boundaries, and enhancing its relevance for policy and planning. Furthermore, the maps are made accessible via an interactive online platform ( https://retornolluvias.csic.es ), enabling users to explore localized hazard probabilities, thereby supporting adaptation in water management and civil protection, among others.

Keywords: Extreme precipitation; Hazard probability maps; Spatial interpolation; Stationary models; Climate services (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-025-07731-0 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:19:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07731-0

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07731-0

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().