Integrating FARSITE and GIS for enhanced forest fire spread prediction and simulation

Elham Goleiji (), Hamide Aliani () and Seyed Mohsen Hosseini ()
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Elham Goleiji: University of British Columbia, Faculty of Land and Food Systems
Hamide Aliani: Faculty of Research Department
Seyed Mohsen Hosseini: Tarbiat Modares University, Department of Forestry, Natural Resources Faculty

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 20, No 8, 23795-23813

Abstract: Abstract Given the widespread fires in forests worldwide, which result in the destruction of ecosystems, effective management of these forests, particularly concerning fire behavior and its spread, is essential. Forest fire prediction is a worldwide problem. There are different models to predict the spread of fires, especially in forest areas. Still, these models are usually complex to apply to real forest fire cases, and the accuracy of prediction is lower than expected. This research aims to identify and predict fire spread behavior and the process of fire spread in natural areas using the FARSITE model. To conduct the research, data including topography, vegetation, and meteorological information were compiled for the study area. Using GIS tools and the FARSITE model, a simulation map of fire spread behavior in the studied forest was generated. The model was tested against the spread of fires under field conditions where a real fire had occurred in the forest area. To assess the accuracy of the simulation, the Kappa coefficient method was employed. The simulation results showed that 34.93 hectares of the observed fire area were accurately simulated as a burned area, demonstrating a high degree of consistency with the actual fire spread. The overestimated area was minimal (0.85 hectares), while 37.7 hectares of the fire spot were not simulated as burned. The findings of this study can inform fire spread behavior prediction models and guide the development of preventive and control measures for fire risk management in forests.

Keywords: Forest fire risk management; Fire spread simulation; FARSITE; Geographical information system (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07404-y

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