Ensemble modeling of extreme seasonal temperature trends in Iran under socio-economic scenarios

Muhammad Kamangar (), Mahmud Ahmadi (), Hamidreza Rabiei-Dastjerdi () and Zeinab Hazbavi ()
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Muhammad Kamangar: Shahid Beheshti University
Mahmud Ahmadi: Shahid Beheshti University
Hamidreza Rabiei-Dastjerdi: University College
Zeinab Hazbavi: University of Mohaghegh Ardabili

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 2, No 3, 1265-1288

Abstract: Highlights A new ensemble model was introduced and evaluated for projecting minimum and maximum temperatures in Iran. Trends in minimum and maximum temperatures in the near term (2021–2040) were obtained using socio-economic scenarios of five models at 95 synoptic stations. The ensemble technique reduced the error of the models used in projection to an optimal extent.

Keywords: Climate change; Correlation; Ensemble; Taylor diagram; Temperature anomaly; Trend analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06830-8

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