Air temperature change and drought effect on water tension and internal migration in Iran

Fatemeh Bashirian () and Dariush Rahimi ()
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Fatemeh Bashirian: University of Isfahan
Dariush Rahimi: University of Isfahan

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 2, No 7, 1353-1373

Abstract: Abstract The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases(CO2) emission in the atmosphere, and natural climate change phenomena has caused unprecedented changes in global climate behavior. The sharp increase in temperature and extreme weather events like drought in arid and semi-arid countries like Iran have reduced the resilience of ecosystems, thus, environmental stability. The objective here is to analyze the causality of air temperature rise trend and drought, by assessing their consequences on water tension and internal migration, next to providing appropriate solutions in reducing environmental vulnerability in Iran through the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model. It is revealed that the air temperature in Iran is increasing at a rate faster than the global average. The simultaneous rise in temperature, the decrease in precipitation, and the occurrence of long-term droughts have increased water tension and reduced the stability of settlements. Reduced water resources have increased poverty and internal migration in Iran. Reducing the intensity of fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emission, through adaptation methods and improving the spatial distribution of the population are among the proposed responses for adjusting the water tension effects and reducing vulnerability.

Keywords: Air temperature; Drought; Water tension; Internal migration; Iran (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06842-4

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