A procedure to simulate spread of post-earthquake fire in urban area considering seismic damage to buildings

Qi Wang, Xuchuan Lin (), Shuna Ni, Jiangrong Zhong and Ning Yang
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Qi Wang: China Earthquake Administration
Xuchuan Lin: China Earthquake Administration
Shuna Ni: University of Maryland
Jiangrong Zhong: China Earthquake Administration
Ning Yang: China Earthquake Administration

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 3, No 32, 3195-3218

Abstract: Abstract After a major earthquake, there is often high risk of fires, which can exacerbate the threat to people and property. To investigate the fire spread characteristics in the aftermath of earthquakes, an integrated simulation approach is introduced in this study. A simulation procedure, which combines elastoplastic time history analysis with the cellular automata (CA) model, is designed to sequentially model the earthquake-induced damage to groups of buildings and the ensuing fires. The earthquake damage state of each building is determined through elastoplastic time history analysis using an earthquake disaster simulator (Yousimulator) and is integrated into the key input parameters of the cellular automaton (CA) model. Combined with the detailed properties of the building and real-time meteorological conditions, the dynamic spread behavior of fires after earthquakes is simulated. To validate the simulation procedure, the 1995 Kobe earthquake-related fires in Japan were simulated, and the results were compared with the actual fire conditions. The results showed that the overall spread pattern and reach of the simulated fires are similar to those of the actual fires. Moreover, the simulation procedure demonstrated notable efficiency, completing the simulation within only five minutes. This simulation procedure provides a valuable means to assess the post-earthquake fire risk in urban areas. By leveraging this method, decision-makers can effectively evaluate the vulnerability of the urban environment to post-earthquake fires, enabling them to make informed decisions and implement targeted measures to mitigate such risks.

Keywords: Urban area; Building damage; Post-earthquake fire spread; Cellular automata; Nonlinear time history analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06778-9

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