Assessment of rainfall variability in Ladakh amidst evolving climate

Richa Singh and R. Bhatla ()
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Richa Singh: Banaras Hindu University
R. Bhatla: Banaras Hindu University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 3, No 27, 3073-3097

Abstract: Abstract Ladakh is characterized by a cold desert and fragile ecosystem that is geographically connected to the Western Himalaya and highly susceptible to changing climate. In the current scenario, the region is receiving more extreme rain events, which have disturbed ecosystem balance and triggered disasters like flash floods and landslides. Therefore, a comprehensive study of rainfall patterns over the past 90 years has been done here, which provides insight into climate trends. In this study, the rainfall pattern has been statistically quantified on a tricadal (30-year period) and decadal (10-year period) basis from 1932 to 2021 by using gridded rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to analyze changes in rainfall in all four seasons, namely pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter, and calculate the trends by using non-parametric tests like Mann–Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope. The results indicate that certain seasons have seen higher rainfall than others. This study employs the precipitation concentration index (PCI) for rainfall variation estimation, accounting for overlapping time segments. PCI values show uniform and highly concentrated rainfall, which indicates the potential for extreme weather events. The study indicates a decadal shift possibly linked with broader climate cycles along with an increased frequency of extreme rain events. Long-term trends are visible in the tricadal analysis, with increased pre-monsoon rainfall in T1 (1932–1961) and decreased monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall in T2 (1962–1991) and T3 (1992–2021). This study is useful in water resources management, agriculture, and ecosystem services.

Keywords: Ladakh; Rainfall variability; Mann–Kendall sequential test; Gridded data; Climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06922-5

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