TRIGRS-FOSM: probabilistic slope stability tool for rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility assessment

Abhijith Ajith () and Rakesh J. Pillai ()
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Abhijith Ajith: Indian Institute of Technology Palakkad
Rakesh J. Pillai: Indian Institute of Technology Palakkad

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 3, No 40, 3430 pages

Abstract: Abstract Landslides, a prominent geohazard, cause considerable disturbances in many natural terrains, impacting both ecosystems and human habitats. In recent years, the intervention of climatic and tectonic activities has increased the frequency of such hazards. Although numerous methodologies have been developed to analyse landslide susceptibility, there remains a pronounced gap in probabilistic slope stability techniques incorporating rainfall infiltration models on a regional scale. The study proposes a new tool TRIGRS-FOSM (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability–First Order Second Moment) developed to account for the uncertainties in soil shear strength properties along with the effect of vegetative cover using probabilistic infinite slope stability analysis. This user-friendly tool is seamlessly integrated with the infiltration model of TRIGRS and adaptable with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), enabling assessment across larger regions. It is especially tailored for regions prone to rainfall-induced landslides such as the Western Ghats of India, which has been under persistent threat due to increasing rainfall. This paper aims to validate the efficacy of TRIGRS-FOSM in the Western Ghats, contrasting it with traditional methodologies and focusing on the landslide prediction accuracy, especially within the Wayanad and Idukki districts of Kerala. On verifying TRIGRS-FOSM against Monte Carlo Simulations, it was observed that TRIGRS-FOSM exhibited a lower relative error for typical ranges of variability associated with soil material properties, underlining its enhanced reliability. Furthermore, the probabilistic approach showcased improvements over the deterministic method, elevating the prediction accuracy by 10% in Wayanad and 14% in Idukki districts based on their AUROC values. Through TRIGRS-FOSM, this work intends to provide a computationally efficient method to account uncertainties of landslide susceptibility assessment, thereby making a substantial contribution to geohazard management.

Keywords: Landslide Hazard; Probabilistic slope stability; Rainfall induced landslides; TRIGRS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06933-2

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