Hydro-informer: a deep learning model for accurate water level and flood predictions

Wael Almikaeel (), Andrej Šoltész (), Lea Čubanová () and Dana Baroková ()
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Wael Almikaeel: Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava
Andrej Šoltész: Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava
Lea Čubanová: Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava
Dana Baroková: Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 4, No 10, 3959-3979

Abstract: Abstract This study aims to develop an advanced deep learning model, Hydro-Informer, for accurate water level and flood predictions, emphasizing extreme event forecasting. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset from the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute SHMI (2008–2020), which includes precipitation, water level, and discharge data, the model was trained using a ladder technique with a custom loss function to enhance focus on extreme values. The architecture integrates Recurrent and Convolutional Neural Networks (RNN, CNN), and Multi-Head Attention layers. Hydro-Informer achieved significant performance, with a Coefficient of Determination (R2) of 0.88, effectively predicting extreme water levels 12 h in advance in a river environment free from human regulation and structures. The model’s strong performance in identifying extreme events highlights its potential for enhancing flood management and disaster preparedness. By integrating with diverse data sources, the model can be used to develop a well-functioning warning system to mitigate flood impacts. This work proposes a novel architecture suitable for locations without water regulation structures.

Keywords: Deep learning; Water level prediction; Flood forecasting; Extreme event forecasting; LSTM; GRU; Hydrological attention; Hydrological embedding (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06949-8

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