Trend and teleconnection analysis of temperature extremes in New South Wales, Australia

Orpita U. Laz, Ataur Rahman () and Taha B. M. J. Ouarda
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Orpita U. Laz: Western Sydney University
Ataur Rahman: Western Sydney University
Taha B. M. J. Ouarda: Institut National de La Recherche Scientifique INRS-ETE

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 4, No 33, 4559-4584

Abstract: Abstract This study investigates possible trends and teleconnections in temperature extremes in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Daily maximum and minimum temperature data covering the period 1971–2021 at 26 stations located in NSW were used. Three indices, which focus on daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and average daily temperature in terms of Excessive Heat Factor (EHF) were investigated to identify the occurrence of heatwaves (HWs). The study considered HWs of different durations (1-, 5-, and 10-days) in relation to intensity, frequency, duration, and their first occurrence parameters. Finally, the influences of three global climate drivers, namely – the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were investigated with associated heatwave attributes for extended Austral summers. In this study, an increasing trend in both hot days and nights was observed for most of the selected stations within the study area. The increase was more pronounced for the last decade (2011–2021) of the investigated time period. The number, duration and frequency of the heatwaves increased over time considering the EHF criterion, whereas no particular trend was detected in cases of TX90 and TN90. It was also evident that the first occurrence of all the HWs shifted towards the onset of the extended summer while considering the EHF criterion of HWs. The correlations between heatwave attributes and climate drivers depicted that heatwave over NSW was positively influenced by both the IOD and ENSO and negatively correlated with SAM. The findings of this study will be useful in formulating strategies for managing the impacts of extreme temperature events such as bushfires, floods, droughts to the most at-risk regions within NSW.

Keywords: Climate drivers; Excess heat factor; Extreme temperature; Heatwaves; Normalised heatwave number; Trend analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06954-x

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