Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Northern Algeria using the Parametric-Historic method

Fouzi Bellalem (), Vasily A. Pavlenko (), Sergio Molina (), Said Maouche (), Rashad Sawires (), Mourad Bezzeghoud (), Abdelhak Talbi () and Mourad Mobarki ()
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Fouzi Bellalem: Astrophysique et Géophysique, CRAAG
Vasily A. Pavlenko: Russian Academy of Sciences
Sergio Molina: University of Alicante
Said Maouche: Astrophysique et Géophysique, CRAAG
Rashad Sawires: Assiut University
Mourad Bezzeghoud: Universidade de Évora
Abdelhak Talbi: Astrophysique et Géophysique, CRAAG
Mourad Mobarki: Astrophysique et Géophysique, CRAAG

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 4, No 47, 4929-4960

Abstract: Abstract In this study the seismic hazard in Northern Algeria is analyzed by using a probabilistic approach, and specifically the parametric-historic method. This method enables the incorporation of the entire accessible seismic history into the analysis and effectively addresses both the spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability of the seismicity parameters. The recently compiled earthquake catalog covering the region and spanning the period from 1658 to 2018 was used for estimating the seismicity parameters. The seismic hazard maps in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) were calculated for return period of 475 years for rock, stiff soil, and soft soil conditions. The uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the major cities in Northern Algeria were calculated for the same conditions. The largest PGA values are observed near the cities of Chlef, Algiers, Blida, Medea, and Tipasa. Arguably the most important obtained result is evident in the seismic hazard estimates for the capital city of Algiers, which significantly exceed previously published estimates.

Keywords: Northern Algeria; Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; Parametric-historic method; Peak ground acceleration; Uniform hazard spectra (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06978-3

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