Personal factors influencing emergency evacuation decisions under different flash flood characteristics

Ruikang Zhang, Dedi Liu (), Yongxin Xu, Changjiang Xu and Xi Chen
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Ruikang Zhang: Wuhan University
Dedi Liu: Wuhan University
Yongxin Xu: University of the Western Cape
Changjiang Xu: Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission
Xi Chen: Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 4, No 40, 4757 pages

Abstract: Abstract Emergency evacuation has received more attention as an effective tool of flash flood disaster prevention that calls for systematic thinking rooted in natural and social sciences. Although personal factors influencing emergency evacuation decisions (EED) after receiving a flood warning have been widely discussed, few studies have referred this issue to the flash flood characteristics. This study explored the personal factors influencing EED under different flash flood characteristics (i.e., the frequency, occurrence time, and severity of flash floods) through field survey data. Three typical flash flood characteristics in three towns were selected as case studies. An ordinary logistical model and path analysis were used to analyze the independent influence and influence process of the personal factors on evacuation intention under the three flash flood characteristics. The results showed that personalized risk perception and warning type consistently influenced evacuation intention regardless of the flash flood characteristics, while the independent influence of flood experience and reliance on hazard information on evacuation intention was varied with the flash flood characteristics. Perceived exposure influenced evacuation intention through the mediations of flood experience when there were high-frequency, recent, and loss-causing flash floods, and of risk perception when there were low-frequency, distant, and few-loss-causing flash floods. The effect of warning type on evacuation intention was varied with the flash flood characteristics if the warning type changed from the suggestive rainstorm red warning to mandatory ready-to-evacuate warning. However, if the warning type changed from the ready-to-evacuate to immediate-evacuation warning, there was no significant difference in this effect regardless of the flash flood characteristics. Therefore, it is necessary to implement distinctive emergency management according to specific flash flood characteristics.

Keywords: Emergency evacuation decisions; Warning type; Flash flood characteristics; Emergency management; Field survey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06982-7

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