Developing hillslope hydrology based probabilistic rainfall threshold for shallow landslides

Suvam Das, Koushik Pandit, Debi Prasanna Kanungo () and Shantanu Sarkar
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Suvam Das: CSIR-Central Building Research Institute
Koushik Pandit: CSIR-Central Building Research Institute
Debi Prasanna Kanungo: CSIR-Central Building Research Institute
Shantanu Sarkar: Uttarakhand Landslide Mitigation & Management Center

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 5, No 12, 5363-5385

Abstract: Abstract Developing rainfall thresholds is crucial for predicting rainfall-induced landslides. Typically, such thresholds are established by correlating past landslide events with corresponding rainfall records. However, this process particularly becomes challenging in regions with limited data. To address this issue, a methodology is designed in this study, which combines both transient seepage and stability analysis, followed by threshold development. This method first identifies the cumulative rainfall (E) and rainfall duration (D) parameters for the critical stability condition (i.e., Factor of Safety ≤ 1). Subsequently, this information is used to derive the E–D threshold line using the frequentist probabilistic approach. The methodology is applied to six shallow landslides located along the National Highway–10 in the Kalimpong region of Darjeeling Himalaya, India. At a 5% exceedance probability (T5), the threshold is estimated as T5 = 26.92D0.44 for a duration range of 1

Keywords: Rainfall-induced landslides; Transient seepage; Factor of safety; Rainfall threshold; Darjeeling Himalaya (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-07018-w

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