Synoptic patterns of extreme precipitation events in Northeast Brazil

Matheus J. A. Lyra (), Helber B. Gomes (), Dirceu L. Herdies (), Silvio N. Figueroa (), Enver Ramirez (), José A. Aravéquia (), Maria C. L. Silva (), Fabricio D. S. Silva (), Heliofábio B. Gomes (), Eder P. Vendrasco (), Leonardo Calvetti (), Hugo A. Braga (), José A. Mantovani (), Jayant Pendharkar (), William Coelho (), Mário F. L. Quadro (), Débora R. Roberti (), César A. A. Beneti () and Rafaela L. Costa ()
Additional contact information
Matheus J. A. Lyra: Federal University of Alagoas
Helber B. Gomes: Federal University of Alagoas
Dirceu L. Herdies: National Institute for Space Research
Silvio N. Figueroa: National Institute for Space Research
Enver Ramirez: National Institute for Space Research
José A. Aravéquia: National Institute for Space Research
Maria C. L. Silva: Federal University of Alagoas
Fabricio D. S. Silva: Federal University of Alagoas
Heliofábio B. Gomes: Federal University of Alagoas
Eder P. Vendrasco: National Institute for Space Research
Leonardo Calvetti: Federal University of Pelotas
Hugo A. Braga: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
José A. Mantovani: National Institute for Space Research
Jayant Pendharkar: National Institute for Space Research
William Coelho: National Institute for Space Research
Mário F. L. Quadro: Federal Institute of Santa Catarina
Débora R. Roberti: Federal University of Santa Maria
César A. A. Beneti: Sistema Meteorológico do Paraná
Rafaela L. Costa: Federal University of Alagoas

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 6, No 48, 7531 pages

Abstract: Abstract Northeast Brazil (NEB) is one of the driest regions in the country, with some areas, such as the sertão, receiving less than 400 mm/year. Despite this aridity, NEB is influenced by various synoptic-scale systems that contribute to intense rainfall events throughout the year. This study aimed to identify and analyze the synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in NEB. There were selected four events that occurred in the region over the past eight years and significantly impacted metropolitan areas. Two cases occurred in eastern, one in southern, and one in northern sector of the study region. The results revealed that these extreme precipitation events were associated with different synoptic-scale systems. The easterly wave disturbance (EWD), upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex (UTCV), South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). EWD and UTCV were primarily responsible for the two eastern cases. The SACZ influenced the case that occurred in the southern, whereas the Atlantic ITCZ played a role in in northern case. Our findings indicate that these events are driven primarily by intense upper-level divergence and substantial moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean to the continent, leading to significant moisture convergence. This study provides crucial insights into the factors driving extreme precipitation events in NEB, which can aid in validating numerical weather prediction models.

Keywords: Extreme events; Precipitation; Meteorological phenomena; Natural disasters (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-07074-2

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