Gender integration in seismic risk assessment: towards equitable resilience in Colombia

A. M. Zapata-Franco () and Y. F. Vargas-Alzate ()
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A. M. Zapata-Franco: Universitat Politècnica De Catalunya
Y. F. Vargas-Alzate: Universitat Politècnica De Catalunya

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 8, No 19, 9405-9442

Abstract: Abstract Research on women’s exposure to natural hazards has shown that gender inequalities increase their risk. It has been a topic of discussion for many years, but in-depth research on the subject has been scarce and, although researchers in the field recognise that there is an equity problem, few have been able to quantify the magnitude and trend of the problem. In developing countries, for example, people living below the poverty line are the most exposed to natural hazards; 70% of the world population living in this condition are women. Moreover, many of them are responsible for household chores and raising children, which requires them to stay indoor for large periods of time, increasing their risk of being harmed in catastrophic events. This is exacerbated by the fact that their houses are not generally built with the minimum requirements to withstand natural hazards. This article seeks to integrate a series of well-known methods into a probabilistic framework to assess the consequences of gender inequalities in seismic events in Colombia. Based on the outcomes of probabilistic surrogate models that consider the average response of single-degree-of-freedom systems, fragility functions have been derived through the use of cloud analysis for two structural typologies: Unreinforced Mid-Rise Masonry and Confined Masonry. The former can be considered a highly vulnerable system, while the latter has a higher performance against seismic actions. The objective has been to assess the influence of potential retrofitting measures on the expected risk. Finally, the Hazus 99 methodology has been adapted to estimate the number of people affected, disaggregated by gender. The projections show that, in the event of an earthquake in Colombia, women are more likely to be adversely affected than men. Protective measures aimed at increasing the resilience of the entire community have proven effective in mitigating the imbalance in seismic risk.

Keywords: Gender inequality; Social vulnerability; Probabilistic approach; Seismic risk assessment; Surrogate model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07112-7

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