Trivariate frequency analysis of droughts characteristics in Kerman city using asymmetric copula functions

Mehrtash Eskandaripour () and Shahrokh Soltaninia ()
Additional contact information
Mehrtash Eskandaripour: Isfahan University of Technology (IUT)
Shahrokh Soltaninia: Islamic Azad University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 9, No 11, 10277-10298

Abstract: Abstract Drought, as a long-term water shortage, is a challenging issue in water resources management. This phenomenon is one of the most costly and less-known natural disasters. Until now, most drought studies have been in the form of univariate and bivariate analyses. The purpose of this research is to analyze the three variables of drought in the city of Kerman, Iran in the statistical period of 1971–2019. For this purpose, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)mod index was used to extract the severity, duration, and peak parameters of drought. In this regard, the ability of the twelve copula functions of Clayton, Frank, Galambos, Plockett, Gamble-Hoggard, Ali-Mikhail-Haq, Farley-Gamble-Morgenstern Heavy Right Tail (HRT), Philip-Gamble, Joy, Gamble-Barnett and Sarmonoff to create a distribution of three variables was tested. For this purpose, the Asymmetric method was used to connect two-dimensional copula functions and create a three-dimensional copula function. To determine the function of the superior copula in the Kerman synoptic station, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Nash Sutcliffe Error (NSE) statistics, as well as Maximum Likelihood (ML) were used. The results showed that the copula HRT function has the best performance in creating bivariate and trivariate distribution functions. Also, the results showed that the use of the SPImod index to a large extent removes the disadvantages of the common SPI and takes into account the seasonal changes of precipitation in the calculation of the SPI index.

Keywords: Trivariate Frequency Analysis; Copula function; Drought; Standardized precipitation index (SPI) mod index; HRT copula function (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-025-07194-3 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:9:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07194-3

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07194-3

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().