Development of earthquake early warning scaling relations for the Northeast India using observed and simulated datasets from Mw 6.1–8.3 earthquakes

Sandeep () and Yihe Huang
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Sandeep: Banaras Hindu University
Yihe Huang: University of Michigan

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 9, No 14, 10355-10376

Abstract: Abstract This work develops the earthquake early warning (EEW) scaling relations for NE India and surrounding regions using P-wave onset data from observed and simulated records. We first validate the modified semi empirical technique (MSET) aimed at P-wave simulation for the 1988 IndoBurma, 2009 Bhutan, and 2011 Sikkim earthquakes that occurred in the study region. Subsequently, MSET is employed to simulate five additional earthquakes, including three scenario earthquakes (M 7.5, 8.2, and 8.3) in the region. We further compute conventional EEW parameters, such as the average period (τc) and peak displacement amplitude (Pd), using a 7 s time window from 20 observed and 121 simulated P-wave datasets. We propose new earthquake magnitude relations of τc and Pd using observed datasets alone as well as observed and simulated datasets together. A comparison of proposed relations demonstrates that the scaling relations developed using hybrid datasets have relatively higher values of EEW parameters for the entire magnitude range (M 6.1–8.3), suggesting that the magnitude underestimation problem in the present scaling relations has been at least partially addressed by incorporating simulated datasets. Due to data scarcity in the study region, we test the established relations for the M7.6–9.0 earthquakes in other regions. The results show relative errors of 3.6% and 2.4% between cataloged and predicted magnitudes for τc and Pd scaling relations, respectively. This demonstrates a good correlation between magnitudes and the applicability of the proposed relations. Moreover, using the developed relations, we estimate a 3.5–46.0 s lead time for 10 major cities in NE India and surrounding regions during future scenario earthquakes. The longer lead time highlights the importance of the development of EEW for real-time seismic hazard reduction in these regions.

Keywords: NE Himalaya India; Earthquake early warning; Simulation; Lead time (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07201-7

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