Clustering-based analysis to address nonstationary spatial ground motion correlations using physics-based simulated data

M. R. Zolfaghari and M. Forghani ()
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M. R. Zolfaghari: K. N. Toosi University of Technology
M. Forghani: K. N. Toosi University of Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 9, No 32, 10825-10841

Abstract: Abstract Reliable assessment of spatial correlations in strong ground motions is crucial for assessing seismic risk across distributed assets. Traditionally, these correlations have been modeled based on stationary and isotropic assumptions. However, recent studies have highlighted the limitations of these assumptions, particularly for sites affected by near-field earthquakes, where correlations of earthquake intensity measures exhibit significant spatial variations due to source, path, and site effects. Addressing the nonstationary patterns of spatial correlation is essential for improving regional seismic hazard and risk evaluations. In this paper, we apply a clustering-based approach that subdivides the study region into subregions and develops individual stationary correlation models for each to simulate ground motion residuals. This method captures the nonstationary structure of spatial ground motion correlations while leveraging the simplicity of stationary models. Additionally, we evaluate its performance against traditional stationary models. Our results demonstrate that this approach outperforms traditional stationary correlation models and provides more reliable predictions of observed ground motions. By accounting for spatial variations in correlation structures, this study can enhance the precision of regional seismic risk assessments.

Keywords: Spatial correlation; Nonstationary; Regional seismic hazard assessment; Near-field earthquakes; 3D physics-based numerical simulation; Clustering (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07220-4

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