Robust Statistical Methods to Discriminate Extreme Events in Geoelectrical Precursory Signals: Implications with Earthquake Prediction

V. Cuomo, G. Di Bello, V. Lapenna, S. Piscitelli, I. Telesca, M. Macchiato and C. Serio

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2000, vol. 21, issue 2, 247-261

Abstract: In this study, we propose a robuststatistical method to discern anomalous patternsin geoelectrical time series measured in a seismicarea of the Southern Apennine chain. First, a filteringprocedure to remove seasonal effects related tometeo-climatic fluctuations was carried out.Then, we selected an autoregressive model able todescribe the time fluctuations of geoelectricalsignals and propose a method to obtain an objectiveestimate of probability of occurrence for each extremeevent detected in the time series. Our applications inSouthern Italy allow us to hypothesize that theambiguity of short-term prediction is within thecomplicated dynamics of the physical processresponsible for electrical anomalies observed on theearth's surface. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

Keywords: Geoelectrical signals; run theory; seismic precursors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
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DOI: 10.1023/A:1008157730467

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