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Validation of Spatial Prediction Models for Landslide Hazard Mapping

Chang-Jo Chung () and Andrea Fabbri ()

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2003, vol. 30, issue 3, 451-472

Abstract: This contribution discusses the problemof providing measures of significance ofprediction results when the predictionswere generated from spatial databases forlandslide hazard mapping. The spatialdatabases usually contain map informationon lithologic units, land-cover units,topographic elevation and derived attributes(slope, aspect, etc.) and the distributionin space and in time of clearly identifiedmass movements. In prediction modelling wetransform the multi-layered databaseinto an aggregation of functional values toobtain an index of propensity of the landto failure. Assuming then that the informationin the database is sufficiently representativeof the typical conditions in which the massmovements originated in space and in time,the problem then, is to confirm the validity ofthe results of some models over otherones, or of particular experiments that seem touse more significant data. A core pointof measuring the significance of a prediction isthat it allows interpreting the results.Without a validation no interpretation is possible,no support of the method or of theinput information can be provided. In particularwith validation, the added value canbe assessed of a prediction either in a fixedtime interval, or in an open-ended time orwithin the confined space of a study area.Validation must be of guidance in datacollection and field practice for landslidehazard mapping. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

Keywords: Validation; spatial data; prediction models; future landslide hazard; quantitative models; visualization; ranking; interpretation of prediction results (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
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