A Study on the Impact of Parameterization of Physical Processes on Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal With NCAR/PSU Mesoscale Model

M. Mandal, U. Mohanty () and S. Raman

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2004, vol. 31, issue 2, 414 pages

Abstract: Prediction of the track and intensity of tropical cyclones is one of the most challenging problems in numerical weather prediction (NWP). The chief objective of this study is to investigate the performance of different cumulus convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes in the simulation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal. For this purpose, two severe cyclonic storms are simulated with two PBL and four convection schemes using non-hydrostatic version of MM5 modeling system. Several important model simulated fields including sea level pressure, horizontal wind and precipitation are compared with the corresponding verification analysis/observation. The track of the cyclones in the simulation and analysis are compared with the best-fit track provided by India Meteorological Department (IMD). The Hong-Pan PBL scheme (as implemented in NCAR Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model) in combination with Grell (or Betts-Miller) cumulus convection scheme is found to perform better than the other combinations of schemes used in this study. Though it is expected that radiative processes may not have pronounced effect in short-range forecasts, an attempt is made to calibrate the model with respect to the two radiation parameterization schemes used in the study. And the results indicate that radiation parameterization has noticeable impact on the simulation of tropical cyclones. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004

Keywords: convection; intensity; mesoscale model; planetary boundary layer; radiation; track; tropical cyclone (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000023359.24526.24 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:31:y:2004:i:2:p:391-414

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000023359.24526.24

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().