A Climatology Model for Forecasting Typhoon Rainfall in Taiwan

Cheng-Shang Lee (), Li-Rung Huang, Horng-Syi Shen and Shi-Ting Wang

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2006, vol. 37, issue 1, 87-105

Abstract: The continuous torrential rain associated with a typhoon often caused flood, landslide or debris flow, leading to serious damages to Taiwan. Thus, a usable scheme to forecast rainfall amount during a typhoon period is highly desired. An analysis using hourly rainfall amounts taken at 371 stations during 1989–2001 showed that the topographical lifting of typhoon circulation played an important role in producing heavier rainfall. A climatology model for typhoon rainfall, which considered the topographical lifting and the variations of rain rate with radius was then developed. The model could provide hourly rainfall at any station or any river basin for a given typhoon center. The cumulative rainfall along the forecasted typhoon track was also available. The results showed that the R 2 value between the model estimated and the observed cumulative rainfall during the typhoon period for the Dan-Shui (DSH) and Kao-Ping (KPS) River Basins reached 0.70 and 0.81, respectively. The R 2 values decreased slightly to 0.69 and 0.73 if individual stations were considered. However, the values decreased significantly to 0.40 and 0.51 for 3-hourly rainfalls, indicating the strong influence of the transient features in producing the heavier rainfall. In addition, the climatology model can only provide the average conditions. The characteristics in individual typhoons should be considered when applying the model in real-time operation. For example, the model could give reasonable cumulative rainfall amount at DSH before Nakri (2002) made landfall on Taiwan, but overestimated the rainfall after Nakri made landfall and weakened with significant reduction in convection. Copyright Springer 2006

Keywords: typhoon; typhoon rainfall; rainfall climatology; quantitative precipitation forecast; typhoon landfall; topographical effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-005-4658-8

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