A hurricane evacuation management decision support system (EMDSS)

Michael Lindell () and Carla Prater ()

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2007, vol. 40, issue 3, 627-634

Abstract: This article describes the challenges confronting local authorities who must decide if and when to initiate evacuations from tropical cyclones. This problem can be decomposed into the behavior of the hurricane that is relevant to evacuation and the behavior of evacuees that is relevant to the hurricane. The uncertain behavior of these two systems can be modeled in an evacuation management decision support system (EMDSS). The hurricane EMDSS described here displays information about the minimum, most, and maximum probable evacuation time estimates (ETEs) in comparison to the earliest, most, and latest probable estimated times of arrival (ETAs) for storm conditions. In addition, EMDSS calculates the cost of false positive (the economic cost of an evacuation) and false negative (lives lost in a late evacuation) decision errors. EMDSS is being used in experiments to assess different information displays, team compositions, community characteristics, and hurricane scenarios. In addition, it will be used in training and actual hurricane operations. Finally, definition of the program’s requirements has identified further research needed to build a better empirical base for its input data. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007

Keywords: Evacuation; Hurricane; Management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:40:y:2007:i:3:p:627-634

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-006-9013-1

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