Probabilistic criteria for volcano evacuation decisions

Gordon Woo ()

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2008, vol. 45, issue 1, 87-97

Abstract: One of the most challenging decisions in the domain of natural hazards is whether to evacuate a densely populated region around a volcano that appears to threaten a major eruption. The economic expense of mass evacuation is high, yet the cost in possible human casualties is potentially much greater if an evacuation is not called, or is called late. To assist officials in weighing these considerations, probabilistic criteria for evacuation decision-making are developed within a cost-benefit analysis framework. It is shown that such criteria may be quantitatively expressed in terms of the proportion of the evacuees owing their lives to the evacuation call. The underlying principles are illustrated with some case studies where eruption probabilities have been estimated. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Keywords: Volcano; Evacuation; Risk; Decision; Event-tree; Cost-benefit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-007-9171-9

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