Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation

Jonas Rumpf (), Helga Weindl, Peter Höppe, Ernst Rauch and Volker Schmidt

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2009, vol. 48, issue 3, 383-398

Abstract: A method is introduced for assessing the probabilities and intensities of tropical cyclones at landfall and applied to data from the North Atlantic. First, a recently developed model for the basin-wide Monte-Carlo simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is enhanced and transferred to the North Atlantic basin. Subsequently, a large number of synthetic tracks is generated by means of an implementation of this model. This synthetic data is far more comprehensive than the available historical data, while exhibiting the same basic characteristics. It, thus, creates a more sound basis for assessing landfall probabilities than previously available, especially in areas with a low historical landfall frequency. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Keywords: Tropical cyclones; Hurricanes; Landfall hazard; Stochastic model; Monte-Carlo simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:48:y:2009:i:3:p:383-398

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-008-9268-9

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