Implementation and integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system: a pilot study in Colombia

Christian Huggel (), Nikolay Khabarov, Michael Obersteiner and Juan Ramírez

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2010, vol. 52, issue 2, 518 pages

Abstract: Landslide early warning systems (EWS) are an important tool to reduce landslide risks, especially where the potential for structural protection measures is limited. However, design, implementation, and successful operation of a landslide EWS is complex and has not been achieved in many cases. Critical problems are uncertainties related to landslide triggering conditions, successful implementation of emergency protocols, and the response of the local population. We describe here the recent implementation of a landslide EWS for the Combeima valley in Colombia, a region particularly affected by landslide hazards. As in many other cases, an insufficient basis of data (rainfall, soil measurements, landslide event record) and related uncertainties represent a difficult complication. To be able to better assess the influence of the different EWS components, we developed a numerical model that simulates the EWS in a simplified yet integrated way. The results show that the expected landslide-induced losses depend nearly exponentially on the errors in precipitation measurements. Stochastic optimization furthermore suggests an increasing adjustment of the rainfall landslide-triggering threshold for an increasing observation error. These modeling studies are a first step toward a more generic and integrated approach that bears important potential for substantial improvements in design and operation of a landslide EWS. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Keywords: Landslides; Early warning systems; Earth observation; Uncertainties; Integrated modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-009-9393-0 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:52:y:2010:i:2:p:501-518

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-009-9393-0

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().