A Bayesian procedure for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Anita Grezio (), Warner Marzocchi, Laura Sandri and Paolo Gasparini

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2010, vol. 53, issue 1, 159-174

Abstract: In this paper, a Bayesian procedure is implemented for the Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA). The approach is general and modular incorporating all significant information relevant for the hazard assessment, such as theoretical and empirical background, analytical or numerical models, instrumental and historical data. The procedure provides the posterior probability distribution that integrates the prior probability distribution based on the physical knowledge of the process and the likelihood based on the historical data. Also, the method deals with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties incorporating in a formal way all sources of relevant uncertainty, from the tsunami generation process to the wave propagation and impact on the coasts. The modular structure of the procedure is flexible and easy to modify and/or update as long as new models and/or information are available. Finally, the procedure is applied to an hypothetical region, Neverland, to clarify the PTHA evaluation in a realistic case. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Keywords: Bayesian method; Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment; Run-up; Modular structure; Seismic sources (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-009-9418-8

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