Estimating probable maximum loss from a Cascadia tsunami

Dale Dominey-Howes (), Paula Dunbar, Jesse Varner and Maria Papathoma-Köhle

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2010, vol. 53, issue 1, 43-61

Abstract: The Cascadia margin is capable of generating large magnitude seismic-tsunami. We use a 1:500 year tsunami hazard flood layer produced during a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment as the input to a pilot study of the vulnerability of residential and commercial buildings in Seaside, OR, USA. We map building exposure, apply the Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model to calculate building vulnerability and estimate probable maximum loss (PML) associated with a 1:500 year tsunami flood. Almost US$0.5 billion worth of buildings would be inundated, 95% of single story residential and 23% of commercial buildings would be destroyed with PML’s exceeding US$116 million. These figures only represent a tiny fraction of the total values of exposed assets and loss that would be associated with a Cascadia tsunami impacting the NW Pacific coast. Not withstanding the various issues associated with our approach, this study represents the first time that PML’s have ever been calculated for a Cascadia type tsunami, and these results have serious implications for tsunami disaster risk management in the region. This method has the potential to be rolled out across the United States and elsewhere for estimating building vulnerability and loss to tsunami. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Keywords: Tsunami; Cascadia; Building vulnerability assessment; Loss; PTVA model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-009-9409-9

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