Determination of failure probabilities of flood defence systems with improved dynamic bounds method

Mohammadreza Rajabalinejad (), Zeki Demirbilek and Tewfik Mahdi

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2010, vol. 55, issue 1, 95-109

Abstract: In this paper, we describe the computational framework of a novel method for solving the challenging problem of probabilistic finite elements. The method is called Improved Dynamic Bounds (IDB) and was developed recently to improve the efficiency of the dynamic bounds. The IDB is used in finite element numerical models to calculate time-dependent failure analyses of structures. In applications, the IDB can speed up the overall simulation process by several orders of magnitude. In applications controlled by two influential variables (e.g, two-dimensional problem), the computational efficiency is improved by a factor of 769 according to Rajabalinejad ( 2009 ). Applications of IDB indicate the method is most efficient for problems where the number of influential variables are limited. This is often the case for geotechnical and coastal flood defence systems. The IDB method is applied in this paper to the 17th Street Flood Wall, a component of the flood defence system (levee infra-structure) that failed during the Hurricane Katrina, to calculate the failure probability of an I-wall. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Keywords: Reliability; Monte Carlo; Dynamic bounds; Flood defence; Monotonic; Simulations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-010-9561-2

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