Dam break threshold value and risk probability assessment for an earth dam

Denghua Zhong (), Yuefeng Sun and Mingchao Li

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2011, vol. 59, issue 1, 129-147

Abstract: In dam safety assessment, it is customary to focus on stability analysis, and the safety factor is regarded as an assessment index that cannot correctly reflect the effect of multi-factors and variable uncertainty. The factors that induce dam breaks are complex and uncertain; however, three primary ones can be identified: hydrological factors, seepage and bank slope instability. In this paper, the risk probability and the dam break threshold value for each factor individually, as well as coupled factors, are studied. The threshold value is acquired using the relationship formula between risk probability and dam type. The Dongwushi reservoir located in the Hebei province of China is taken as a case study. The results show that the dam break threshold values for hydrological factors, seepage and bank slope instability are 2.53, 2.02 and 2.69, respectively. The integrated dam break threshold value for the coupled factors is 1.25, which indicates that the dam is under serious stress according to the established risk assessment standard. The safety factor is calculated as 1.15 using the Bishop method, which indicates that the dam is under serious stress. The results obtained by the proposed method are consistent with those of the Bishop method. Finally, the proposed theory and method are introduced into a dam safety evaluation system (DSES) for convenient and efficient dam safety management. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Keywords: Earth dam break; Threshold value; Risk assessment standard; Risk probability; Dam safety evaluation system (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-011-9743-6 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:59:y:2011:i:1:p:129-147

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9743-6

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().