Copula-based evaluations of drought variations in Guangdong, South China

Chun-Ling Liu, Qiang Zhang (), Vijay Singh and Ying Cui

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2011, vol. 59, issue 3, 1533-1546

Abstract: Changing characteristics of hazardous weather-related events have been arousing considerable public interest in recent years. Guangdong is an economically developed province in China and is prone to natural hazards. Using monthly precipitation data covering a period of 1956–2008 from 127 rain gauge stations, the probabilistic behaviors of SPI-based droughts were investigated with copulas functions. Results indicated a higher risk of droughts along the coastal regions and the western Guangdong, particularly the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. Joint probabilities of droughts with higher intensity and longer duration were found to have relatively even geographical distribution across Guangdong. The northern parts of Guangdong are higher in altitude and have a lower risk of droughts. Identification of regions characterized by droughts of different severity and durations across Guangdong is important for scientific management of water resource and agricultural activities and also the development of social resilience under the influence of climate changes. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Keywords: Probability behaviors; Copulas functions; SPI-based droughts; Risk evaluation of hazards; Guangdong Province (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9850-4

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