Landslide displacement prediction based on combining method with optimal weight

Xiuzhen Li (), Jiming Kong and Zhenyu Wang

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2012, vol. 61, issue 2, 635-646

Abstract: Predicting the deformation and evolution tendency of landslides is essential to landslide disaster prevention and mitigation. At present, most of the proposed models for landslide displacement prediction belong to single models. It is difficult to accurately describe the deformation and evolution law only by a single model for the complexity of landslides and limitation of the models. In this paper, we presented an application of linear combination model with optimal weight in landslide displacement prediction. We took Huanlongxicun and Saleshan landslides in Gansu province of China as examples, firstly to build GM(1,1) and Verhulst models for displacement prediction of the two landslides; then build two linear combination models of the two landslides, on the basis of the combining theory with optimal weight and the prediction results of the GM(1,1) and Verhulst models. The results show that the prediction accuracies of the combining models are much higher than those of the single models for both Huanglongxicun landslide and Saleshan landslide. Therefore, the combining model with optimal weight is an effective and feasible method to further improve accuracy for landslide displacement prediction. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Keywords: Landslide; Displacement prediction; Combining method with optimal weight; GM(1; 1) model; Verhulst model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-0051-y

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